Causal Models can be Used to Predict Base-Rate Neglect
نویسنده
چکیده
Causal models are used to predict individuals' probability judgments on the taxicab problem of Tversky and Kahneman (1982). Predictions are based on the hypothesis that judgments take into account only those variables that are judged causally relevant. Two versions of the problem were tested, one with and one without causally-relevant base rates. The results showed that causal models were able to predict judgments reasonably well. However, the data failed to replicate Tversky and Kahneman's finding of a difference between the two conditions.
منابع مشابه
Causal model and sampling approaches to reducing base rate neglect
Two studies examined how sampling of base rate information and causal explanation of false positives facilitate intuitive probability judgments. Experiment 1a varied these two manipulations factorially. Each had an additive effect on reducing base rate neglect and increasing choice of the normatively correct solution. Experiment 1b showed that description of relevant distributional information ...
متن کاملThe Role of Causal Models in Reasoning Under Uncertainty
Numerous studies of how people reason with statistical data suggest that human judgment often fails to approximate rational probabilistic (Bayesian) inference. We argue that a major source of error in these experiments may be misunderstanding causal structure. Most laboratory studies demonstrating probabilistic reasoning deficits fail to explain the causal relationships behind the statistics pr...
متن کاملThe causal relationship between anxiety, rumination, neglect, peer relationship and bullying with the readiness of addiction
Purpose: The aim of this research was to determine the causal relationship between anxiety, rumination, neglect, relationships with peers and bullying with the readiness of addiction. Method: In this causal-correlational study, the statistical population was all boys secondary school students in Isfahan city. There for 375 students were selected by cluster random sampling on the basis of determ...
متن کاملCausality in Judgment 1 Running head: CAUSALITY IN JUDGMENT The Role of Causality in Judgment Under Uncertainty
Leading accounts of judgment under uncertainty evaluate performance within purely statistical frameworks, holding people to the standards of classical Bayesian (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974) or frequentist (Gigerenzer & Hoffrage, 1995) norms. We argue that these frameworks have limited ability to explain the success and flexibility of people's real-world judgments, and propose an alternative normat...
متن کاملChild Neglect and Internalizing Disorders: The Mediating Role of Emotion Regulation
Background and Purpose: Child neglect is associated with negative and long-term consequences in adolescence and adulthood such as internalizing disorders. Identifying the mechanism of the relationship between child neglect and internalizing disorders helps to identify the therapeutic interventions. The aim of this study was to examine the mediating effect of emotion regulation in the relationsh...
متن کامل